Gold doesn’t behave like a stock or a bond. There are no earnings to model, no dividends to discount, and no CEO to blame when the price drops. What gold reflects, more than anything else, is the collective confidence people have in the institutions managing money. When that confidence is high, gold is ignored. When it starts to crack, gold gets attention fast.

Silver follows the same logic but adds a wrinkle: it has a real industrial life. Solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, medical equipment. That dual identity makes silver louder, more volatile, and more interesting to trade, but also harder to hold when the industrial cycle turns against it.

Today’s Agenda

• Today I will cover Gold and Silver, the historical events and what to expect considering key drivers, Fed, inflation, oil, bonds, and to special situations that produce the biggest moves.

• We will also review the status of the high-probability setups posted over the weekend including the charts for SPX, DIA, NFLX, TSLA, SMH, GLD. And other securities that are worth watching given their technical conditions like GOOG, MSFT, BITCOIN, and of course, GLD.

• Daily Plan for the SPX and ES=F for August 20th. Last night I anticipated a gap fill attempt today, with 7,729 acting as a significant resistance, which is the rejection zone of the day. Daily levels for Semiconductor giants included.

This week, the SPX reversed as expected below 7,730, dropping close to the extended target of 7,673 🎯. DIA, the Dow Jones ETF, also fell as anticipated, touching its extended target of 532 🎯. NFLX reached its bullish target of 80 🎯, and TSLA is aiming for its bullish target despite elevated volatility. Meanwhile, SMH hit the anticipated bullish target of 600 🎯 before pulling back to 556, another pre-modeled level.

These price targets were modeled in advance last Friday for this week, demonstrating how institutional algorithms react at these key price zones modeled in advance 🎯.

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you receive the following perks:

• Daily levels for the SPX and ES=F

• Full access to our market intelligence library

• Downloadable copies of my two e-books on technical analysis (basic and advanced)

• Custom modeling of support and resistance levels for your watchlist, simply submit it every Saturday in the chat and receive your levels on Sunday.

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On July 29th, I outlined the technical reasons why gold was likely to bounce. GLD, the ETF we track, is up 11% since that post, proving how technical analysis helps investors and traders improve performance.

Today’s publication is a must read for every investor and trader, it includes historical charts and comprehensive context that will allow you to navigate rallies and manage risk.

Let’s begin with the market intelligence, then we continue with the analysis of setups.

Gold and Silver: The Complete Framework

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Following yesterday’s decline in the SPX and NDX, I studied the semiconductor rally, highlighting the gaps on SMH, MU, and bearish setups for NVDA and TSM. As it has happened before, those gaps were filled rapidly during today’s session.

Levels as Confirmations

Given the bearish reversal risk described yesterday, I posted the daily levels for MU, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, and SMH, alongside our usual daily levels for SPX and ES=F.

When MU opened below the anticipated central daily level (CDL) of 1,014, the downside elevator was activated, sliding until the central weekly level of 933 acted as support. A similar move played out when NVDA lost its central daily level of 225 and AMD lost its CDL of 509, with these two stocks losing their crucial central weekly levels (details below).

Daily levels function as early warnings. In addition of losing the central daily levels, the anticipated daily supports at 992 (for MU) and 501 (for AMD) were lost as well. Using those levels to set protection for long positions help to protect capital, in this case against a -7% total daily selloff in MU and a -4.3% drop in AMD.

Similar case played out on the SPX. The anticipated central daily level published yesterday was 7,760, with the next line of defense at 7,729. Price action faced rejection near the 7,714 level at the open, leading to a choppy session that closed near 7,683.

The Edge of Anticipation

Technical analysis helps us anticipate direction, whether through momentum or reversals. Support and resistance levels modeled in advance, such as the central daily thresholds acting as strict above/below directional guides, provide a clear structural roadmap.

Because these daily levels are modeled one day ahead of the session, traders gain a key edge to plan their moves without the stress of the morning session. This daily analysis complements our three core weekly publications released on Wednesdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Subscribe!

When you subscribe to the paid plan, you receive the following perks:

• Full access to our market intelligence library

• Downloadable copies of my two e-books on technical analysis (basic and advanced)

• Custom modeling of support and resistance levels for your watchlist—simply submit it every Saturday in the chat and receive your levels on Sunday

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Today, I cover the the daily plan for the SPX and ES=F including their daily levels for August 19th, also adding MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, TSM, SMH, and SPCX.

Tomorrow is FED day, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2PM New York time, volatility is likely, this week alone the VIX has jumped +11%, and the Dow Jones is filling its gap, as anticipated.

Daily Plan for August 19th

SPX, Futures, SPCX, and Semiconductors - daily levels:

Read more

Despite the broader market decline, chipmakers outperformed. Surging Q2 revenue reports from Anthropic signaled robust artificial intelligence spending, lifting shares of Micron Technology MU over 4% and SNDK up nearly 9%.

Who is Telling the truth?

The SPX and the Dow Jones have technical conditions analyzed during the weekend that suggested a pullback, the VIX on the other hand was nearing to a support zone, and semiconductors presented constructive setups, in fact, SMH was highlighted as a high probability setup aiming at $600.8 (+2.2%) as the primary target, $600 was reached today.

There is an important aspect to consider in the Semiconductors move that will be described below in the daily plan for Tuesday, Aug 18th.

Get the daily levels for SPX, ES=F, SMH, NVDA, MU, AMD, TSM, AVGO, and SPCX (among others, and it continues gaining momentum as the technical setup suggests).

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SPX and ES=F Daily Plan: Beware of This Semiconductor Condition

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The S&P 500 is sitting at record highs, earnings season just delivered its strongest beat rate since 2021, and artificial intelligence continues to fuel one of the most powerful investment narratives in a generation. On the surface, the bull case has rarely looked cleaner, and that is precisely when careful assessment of context and disciplined risk management matter most.

Macro + fundamental analysis combined with technical charts remain the most effective way to navigate markets. The best recent illustration of why all three matter is Gold; the macro-bullish case was valid and widely endorsed. Yet GC Futures still fell 29% from peak in March to trough by June (5,434 to 3,955). My bullish reversal call came much more precise than macro analysis on July 29th, based on price action, and the reasoning is documented in that day’s publication (link). The same principle applies to Silver, which fell from a January peak near 121 to approximately 55 by July, a -54% collapse that may have looked unthinkable in the first weeks of 2026 when precious metals sentiment was at peak euphoria despite extreme overbought conditions on the charts. Macro conviction without technical discipline can be very expensive.

The same dynamic played out in Micron. On June 25th, the day earnings were reported, the overbought conditions and the gap open acting as a price magnet were flagged in real time. Micron fell roughly 41% from that day through the end of July. That kind of move is painful for anyone positioned without awareness of technical conditions, and the point is not to be right about a single trade but to recognize that ignoring chart structure while following a compelling narrative carries unnecessary risk.

Integrating macro, fundamental, and technical analysis is not optional for serious investors. It is the framework that keeps a third of your capital from disappearing in a trend reversal, or half of it in a commodity crash that the crowd never saw coming.

With that foundation in place, last weekend’s publication covered the strong fundamental strength in corporate America, and my Wednesday’s analysis addressed the six Magnificent Seven members that had reported earnings by that point.

Gain full access by upgrading to the paid plan. Your membership includes three core weekly publications featuring modeled price levels for the week ahead on Fridays, the Weekly Compass with technical actionable trade setups on Saturdays, comprehensive Market Intelligence on Wednesdays, and daily updates on SPX and ES=F. Everything is available at smartreversals.com.

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Today’s Agenda

• Macro Picture: Corporate Insiders, Valuations, Institutional Positioning, FED, Oil.

• Technical Context: Charts for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, Gold, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Charts and price targets for Magnificent Seven and other megacaps.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

Macro Picture

Corporate insiders sold $77.6 billion worth of stock in the first half of 2026, the second-highest level of selling recorded in more than two decades. For every insider buying shares, eleven were selling. That is not noise. That is the people with the most information about future earnings, margins, and competitive positioning quietly reducing their own exposure at prices they apparently do not find attractive enough to hold.

The earnings picture is real but nuanced. Eighty-six percent of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 estimates, above both the five-year and ten-year averages, and those estimates had already been revised upward heading into reporting season, which makes the beat rate more meaningful than usual. Revenue growth came in near 13%, the strongest since 2022. The caveat is that stripping out one-time valuation gains at two companies (GOOG and AMZN) drops the headline blended EPS growth rate from 47% to 29%. Still strong, but worth understanding what is actually driving the aggregate.

Valuation is where the conversation gets harder. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over ten years to remove the distortions of any single cycle, currently sits at approximately 40.5. In roughly 150 years of market history, that level has only been exceeded once: in late 1999 at the peak of the dot-com bubble, when it reached 44. The difference today is that the leading companies generating these multiples actually have earnings, free cash flow, and proven business models. The dot-com era was largely built on projections. This one is built on real revenue. That distinction matters, but it does not make 40 times cyclically adjusted earnings cheap.

Institutional positioning: Equity allocations among institutional investors reached their highest level since October 2007 earlier this year, while bond allocations fell to their lowest since 2008. The structural over-allocation to equities versus fixed income hit a 15-year extreme. When the largest pools of capital are already maximally committed, the marginal buyer becomes harder to find.

Federal Reserve and Oil: Key Catalysts Poised to Trigger the Next Market Move

The Federal Reserve is the one that most directly echoes the conditions that preceded the last great bubble unwinding, hence the major resistance zones for the SPX:

Read more

Macroeconomic data drove the S&P 500 to a brand-new historical high this week, though macro exhaustion caused a slight market decline by Friday:

Inflation Data Sparks a Rally Earlier in the week, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures boosted equity markets. The wholesale inflation reading (PPI) remained unchanged month-over-month, boosting optimism that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate adjustments at its September policy meeting. This data originally catalyzed a rally on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to a record close near 7,800.

Late-Week Pullback: A Slowing US Consumer The initial rate-pause optimism was tempered on Friday by economic data indicating that the primary engine of the US economy is cooling. July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, missing expectations of a slight increase. Concurrently, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index registered a disappointing decline, signaling that macroeconomic pressures are causing consumers to dial back spending.

In summary, the expectations as of today are:

• Probability of a Hike: ~31%–34% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

• Probability of a Hold: ~65%–69% chance rates remain unchanged.

Corporate Highlights & Semiconductor Volatility Reddit (RDDT) surged 12% today on news that the platform will officially be added to the S&P 500 index prior to the opening bell on August 18.

Meanwhile, semiconductor firms experienced broad fluctuations:

• Sandisk (SNDK): Soared over 35% this week following strong revenue guidance.

• Applied Materials (AMAT): Dropped -5% today despite beating earnings.

• Micron (MU): Gained 10.7% this week suggesting the bottom is in.

(Note: MU and AMAT are tracked daily using levels in the Founding Members Exchange Hub).

High-Probability Trades This Week These setups shared last weekend performed exceptionally well:

• SPCX: Reached our extended target of 142.8 for a 7.3% gain 🎯.

• NFLX: Reached its extended level of 78.7 for a 6% gain 🎯.

• WMT: Gained 3% this week, crossing our 114.8 target 🎯.

• TSLA: Reached our extended target of 347 for a 5.8% gain 🎯.

• AMZN: Fell as anticipated. Its 4.3% weekly loss crossed the 267 first target 🎯 and is getting closer to 261.

Modeled last Friday, these levels have proven essential for setting targets AND managing risk. This week, expectations for bullish continuation in AAPL and IBIT were invalidated when they lost their central weekly levels at 310 (-1%) and 36.4 (-1.1%), respectively. Using these levels correctly offers a significant improvement in risk to reward ratios: average gains sit at 4%, while average invalidation is just 1%.

Upgrade your subscription to the paid plan, and receive modeled price levels on Fridays for the week ahead, Weekly Compass with technical analysis and high probability setups on Saturdays, market intelligence on Wednesdays, plus daily levels for the SPX and ES Futures.

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Let’s study the levels for next week for our watchlist as usual:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

In case you missed, this week I posted the fundamental updates for AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, META, and SPCX. Get facts and objective information here:

Let’s begin,

WEEKLY LEVELS: AUGUST 17TH - 21ST

With the FOMC meeting minutes dropping next week, market indecision is reaching a boiling point considering that not everything across the market is aligned for a continuation rally.

See below the S&P 500 hovering right at its central weekly level (bullish above it, bearish below it), but the Dow Jones has already slipped beneath it. Under the surface, divergences are growing: NVDA and AMD are flashing relative strength, while AVGO sits in negative territory and the Magnificent Seven show a fragmented mix of setups. Use the red/green highlights as a guide:

Read more

Tech shares and softer-than-expected inflation data fueled the stock market today. The SPX breached the 7,800 milestone for the first time to set a new all-time high.

Last night, we studied charts for the SPX and ES=F, highlighting two key levels that would provide direction to the next move:

7,729 for the SPX: “if that level breaks, a gap fill thesis would be likely”

and:

7,799 for the ES=Futures, “if that one is breached, there could be a continuation for this bull leg”.

Both levels were very close to price action, in addition, today’s CDL for the SPX (7,750) kept its support condition from the opening.

Using levels to validate direction is an essential tool to navigate a ticker when price action is moving in a narrow range as studied yesterday.

Today we will cover the daily plan for tomorrow, levels will be essential considering how the volatility index closed today.

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As a special note, today we will cover the fundamental analysis for SPCX, last night we covered AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, and META, as the magnificent that have posted earnings results, the analysis is here in case you missed it.

Today’s content:

• Fundamental Analysis for SpaceX (SPCX)

• Daily Plan for SPX and ES=F

• Daily levels for Friday, Aug14th: SPX, ES=F, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOG, and SPCX.

Let’s begin.

SpaceX provides comprehensive solutions across space exploration, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence. The organization is structured into three primary divisions:

• Space: This sector handles the deployment and operation of the Falcon, Dragon, and Starship spacecraft.

• Connectivity: This branch manages satellite and mobile network services, specifically through its Starlink and Starshield programs.

• Artificial Intelligence: This division focuses on building data center infrastructure, advancing the Grok large language model, and creating various other AI applications.

This is the fundamental snapshot:

Read more

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) calmed market anxieties regarding potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, with fed fund futures reducing the probability of a September rate hike down to around 40%, one of the reasons for the bullish move today.

Appetite for technology and hardware infrastructure stocks saw a revival, SMCI soared +19% after reporting an EPS beat of 84% above estimates and raising its forward guidance. Cloud-computing platform CoreWeave (CRWV) also leaped +19.3% following stronger-than-expected sales results.

Semiconductors bounced, MU leading the move with a +5% rally. On the SPX side, our anticipated CDL acted as bullish above/bearish below reference, the price action moved in a narrow range between 7,737 and 7,758; both levels modeled yesterday for today’s session.

We study the daily levels for the SPX and now the E-mini futures every day as well, considering these overnight moves. Yesterday, I posted 7,762 as the central daily level for ES=F, with the next resistance zone at 7,787 in case a bullish move materialized. 7,794 was the effective top of the day today before the CPI data was released; since then, the futures have moved, testing 7,762 several times during the day.

The daily plan for the SPX and ES=F is below. They have both been moving in a narrow range during the last six trading days, with the futures testing a monthly resistance while the SPX tests a monthly level. Whichever index breaches its line first will provide clarity on the next major move.

High-Probability Trades:

It’s Wednesday, and several setups analyzed last Saturday have already reached their targets. I have been bullish on SpaceX (SPCX) based on clear technical reasons; the 142.8 bullish target (+7.3% versus last Friday’s close) has been surpassed (currently +9% this week 🎯). NFLX crossed its primary target and reversed at the extended one of 77 (+3.8%) 🎯. WMT crossed its bullish target of 114 (+2.6%) and has accumulated 3.7% so far this week 🎯. AMZN is bearish as expected, reaching its bearish target of 267.7 for a -2.5% move 🎯, and MSFT reversed to the bearish side as anticipated. Setups like V, GLD, DIA, and MSFT remain constructive in their directional moves aiming at their targets.

When the indices are choppy, the power of individual names is significant. We have navigated these types of markets, and this week has been no different.

Subscribe and unlock the Weekly Compass with the blueprint of setups for all the magnificent seven, indices, ETFs, and other megacaps.

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Magnificent Seven - Fundamental Analysis and Price Targets 2026

It is time to study fundamentals. There is some noise on social media about a dot-com crash, with analysts talking about a bubble that is about to implode badly. Let’s begin a series of fundamental analyses, today with six of the Magnificent Seven, the ones that have posted earnings reports: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, META, and AMZN.

My focus is on technicals and price action, and always on megacaps. Megacaps still offer double-digit rallies and selloffs that we have successfully navigated; they exist in the options market, and their daily volume ensures that buy or sell orders are filled quickly, allowing stops to be triggered effectively.

Today’s Content:

• Fundamental analyses including business context, financial indicators 5-year evolution, and price targets combining fundamentals and annual levels for AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, META, and AMZN.

• Daily plan for SPX and ES=F.

• Technical charts for the Magnificent 6 analyzed today, plus SPCX and WMT as main stocks breaking out as anticipated.

• Daily levels for tomorrow: SPX, ES=F, and all the Magnificent Seven.

When you subscribe to SmartReversals, you receive three core publications every week. This includes weekly levels for a watchlist of megacaps, indices, and ETFs for the week ahead on Fridays, a technical immersion with setups on Saturdays, and market intelligence or fundamental analysis on Wednesdays. Additionally, you receive daily levels and brief posts every other day presenting the daily plan and levels for the SPX and ES=F.

Let’s begin,

Are fundamentals so weak that a major crash is coming? or are they strong enough that some pullbacks are suggesting buying opportunities?

Read more

Major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower for a second consecutive day, pulling back from the all-time records set last week. Investor caution drove the session as markets awaited the key July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday 8:30AM EST, while continuing to digest ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, which as mentioned last Saturday, that’s the constant uncertain element in this market.

Hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran faded, raising concerns about international shipping lines and the potential impact of sustained energy costs on future inflation figures. Highlighting the reality of the crisis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) officially raised its 2026 global oil price forecast to $87/bbl specifically due to prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait.

Interestingly, the VIX closed in the red (-1.2%), something that we will consider below.

In the corporate side, Alphabet (GOOG) faced notable selling pressure, closing 3.6% lower. The central daily level shared yesterday worked as an initial alert of the bearish move, 354 was lost when the market opened, and for more risk tolerance, the first support level of 352 was breached with an impulsive move during the first fifteen minutes of the session, these pre-calculated levels posted last night for GOOG, acted as early warnings. Same case for SPCX (SpaceX) that is consolidating following an expected rally, the loss today of 136 as central daily level triggered the move toward 132 which was the anticipated first support level for the day and where the price closed today.

For the SPX, The session anticipated a narrow range based on the levels posted yesterday when the market closed, the Central Daily Level of 7,756 as the bullish-above/bearish-below marker flipped to resistance around 11AM following indecisive price action, the second support level at 7726 acted as the final structural floor for the day. The ES=F continue facing rejection at the monthly level of 7,799 for 6th day in a row, setting that line as a key threshold for bulls and bears.

Looking Ahead: July CPI Catalyst

All eyes are on the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It represents the single most crucial macro catalyst of the week, arriving on the heels of a cooling labor market and mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s September policy action.

Economists project headline annual inflation will decelerate slightly to 3.4% (down from 3.5% in June). If the data satisfies or prints cooler than consensus, equities could see a bullish move. A hotter-than-expected print will likely spark a sell-off.

Below are the daily levels for tomorrow for the SPX, ES=F, SPCX, and the Magnificent Seven (TSLA, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, META).

Upgrade to the paid plan to unlock the full technical levels and daily execution plan for these securities.

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SPX and ES=F: Daily Plan

During earnings season we studied the implied moves for the companies reporting earnings, the actual moves were very consistent to those expectations, let’s begin with implied moves for the index and the magnificent seven, see below that volatility is likely, and consistent with the compression in price action that we have seen during this week:

Read more

Upcoming Economic Updates:

Over the weekend, the Weekly Compass highlighted underlying caution in several technology names, including select “Magnificent Seven” stocks and semiconductors. For instance, in the Setups Blueprint, AMD appeared as bearish and fell -2.9% today. Conversely, SpaceX (SPCX) was highlighted as bullish and jumped 4% today, aligning well with Saturday’s technical analysis. Walmart (WMT) and gold (GLD) were expected to move in the green zone, and they began the week constructive, matching expectations. LLY was bullish in the Blueprint, keep an eye on that one using the levels since the spike looks constructive.

As we are early in the week, the Weekly Compass continues to serve as our primary navigational guide, these daily updates provide specific price daily levels to watch: Tesla (TSLA) is trading bullishly as expected, today’s shooting star Microsoft (MSFT) is consistent with a potential consolidation, the indecisive price action on Google (GOOG) matches with the thesis noted in the Compass, let’s study all the magnificent seven, including the bearish move for Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

The Weekly Compass is here:

Navigating Volatility: Key Levels as the VIX Jumps 4%

Reviewing today’s key levels, the anticipated central daily level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was 7,746, with expected resistance at 7,774. True to form, the high of the day reached 7,773.8 before reversing. As mentioned previously, these levels serve as effective tools for tracking where institutional algorithms can react. For the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES=F), the anticipated central daily level was 7,763, with resistance pegged at a monthly and daily confluence zone of 7,799 to 7,800. The session high hit that zone before reversing at 7,798.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, let’s assess the daily levels for both the SPX and ES=F plus the entire Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, META, and AMZN) alongside SpaceX (SPCX). Because each name presents distinct technical conditions, their collective movement will dictate the next broader market leg. The tracking for SpaceX (SPCX) follows the anticipated bullish call since last week

Let’s map out the precise bullish-above and bearish-below thresholds for tomorrow, combining them with weekly levels to anticipate key confluence zones. Upgrade to the paid plan to unlock this analysis and all exclusive content at SmartReversals.com.

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SPX and E-mini Futures (ES=F), Daily Plan:

Before covering all the Magnificent Seven and SpaceX, let us analyze the levels for these two:

Read more

As of the end of the trading week on Friday, August 7, 2026, 88% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 have officially posted their actual earnings results for the second-quarter corporate reporting cycle. Overall, the corporate reporting cycle has exceeded Wall Street’s original expectations, driving the index to its broadest and highest profit expansion in several years considering:

• 86% of reporting companies have beaten their consensus Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates. This is well above the historical 5-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 76%.

• Approximately 77% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded their revenue expectations. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are concurrently reporting positive revenue growth for the quarter.

• The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 (SPX) stands at 50.4%. If this holds, it will mark the single highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2021.

• The blended revenue growth rate, currently marks a 14.1% year-over-year, marking a substantial top-line expansion for major U.S. firms.

While corporate fundamentals are performing exceptionally well (and that’s a major bullish factor for the SPX), the global macro and geopolitical context introduces complex undercurrents.

Macro: The July jobs data delivered an unexpected contraction, with non-farm payrolls dropping by 23,000 jobs (missing expectations for an 83,000 gain) and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1%. While a drop in hiring looks weak superficially, equity markets translated this as a buffer against further monetary tightening, fed funds futures priced the probability of a September rate hike down to 44% (from 55%), giving the market near-term breathing room and fueling the bullish action on Friday.

Geopolitics: Since war broke out in late February, energy shipping transit via the Strait of Hormuz (which normally moves 20% of global oil) has faced major disruptions. This week, oil markets experienced volatile swings over an Oman-brokered diplomatic layout. CL=F fell -11% this week closing at $77 after a published Iranian draft bill proposed taxing transit and banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from entering the channel.

With all that said, investing and trading rarely present the perfect environment. If you wait for a solid corporate context like the one we have now, with inflation, jobs, consumer sentiment, GDP, and other macro factors favoring the market, and geopolitics entirely peaceful and cooperative, you may find yourself waiting a very long time (if not forever), out of the market or always managing to find a factor to expect a decline.

For that reason, my focus remains on price action analyzed through technical indicators, always keeping the fundamentals behind the charts in mind. By setting targets and risk management with modeled support and resistance levels (proven over more than two years of this publication to be zones where institutional algorithms react) we navigate the markets with discipline and clarity about the context.

Actionable insights:

This Saturday’s publication provides a blueprint of setups across indices, ETFs, megacaps, and crypto. By tracking a consistent watchlist with technical analysis and levels, we successfully monitor rotations across sectors and assets.

Here are the high probability setups that played out this week:

• PLTR: Triggered a bullish reversal by recovering the 124 central weekly level 🎯, exceeding its target by far with a 39% weekly move.

• TSLA: Executed a bullish reversal, hitting the 328 extended target for a +5.4% weekly gain 🎯.

• META: Bounced off a recovery of 564. While noted transparently that the +8% target of 603 might take more than a single week, the stock still rallied +6.3% 🎯.

• GOOG: Bullish setup to hit the 381 extended target (+6.9%) 🎯. Before a precise reversal from that modeled zone.

• GLD: Remained bullish as anticipated, surpassing the 388 target for a +7.3% weekly gain 🎯.

• MSFT: Reached its 491 bullish target for a secure +5.8% move 🎯.

• SPCX: Highlighted in Thursday’s daily post to paid subscribers with a successful bullish setup above 111 and providing a complete set of levels to trail stops for the eventual bullish move that indeed happened 🎯.

That is 7 high-probability setups successfully playing out. Trading is never about perfection, of course; this week also included a bearish setup for AAPL that remains in progress and has not yet reached its target.

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Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Important Announcement: Daily posts now include daily levels for ES Futures for all paid subscribers!.

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Common Questions on the Minds of Investors and Traders

With so much noise coming from mainstream media, and even more from social media, let’s address these three questions:

1. Is the Economy Strong?

2. How Are Fundamentals Doing for the Medium and Long Term?

3. Is It Real There Is an AI Bubble?

Economy: A Modest, Dual-Track Economic Slowdown

The economy is currently showing clear signs of cooling down under the weight of sustained interest rates and localized energy constraints, but it remains structurally resilient rather than collapsing.

• The Soft Landing/Cooling Trend: The defining macro indicator of the week (the unexpected loss of 23,000 U.S. jobs in July) proves the labor market is finally easing. However, the equity markets treated this “bad news as good news” because a softer job market drastically lowers the probability of any upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

• Resilient Consumer Spending: Corporate reports from consumer-facing giants do not indicate a recession. WMT has seen net sales growth forecasts +4.8% to +5.1%, driven in part by value-conscious consumers and strong e-commerce growth., Visa (V) processed a historic $4 trillion in transactions in a single quarter, and JPM saw investment banking fees surge 38%. The consumer is active, though increasingly cost-conscious.

Fundamentals: Structurally Sound with Temporary Margin Pressure

For the medium and long term, corporate fundamentals remain remarkably healthy, though companies are facing short-term profitability hurdles.

• Top-Line Growth is Real: Across the board, mega-cap revenue growth is exceptional. AMZN posted a 20% revenue jump, MSFT climbed 18%, and GOOG rose 24%. These are not hollow metrics; they indicate robust demand for secular digital services.

• The Margin Squeeze: The near-term headwinds are self-inflicted by aggressive corporate investment. Companies are sacrificing immediate profitability (operating margins) to build out future infrastructure. For instance, TSLA saw its operating margin compress to 1.4% as it shifted capital entirely toward robotic compute, R&D, and pricing adjustments.

AI Bubble: An Infrastructure Overbuild Correction, Not a 2000-Style Dot-Com Crash

The dramatic after-hours sell-offs of companies that heavily beat earnings targets—such as AMD and SpaceX (SPCX) prove that Wall Street is suffering from severe AI Capital Expenditure Fatigue. Investors are no longer blindly cheering artificial intelligence announcements; they are demanding short-term returns on capital expenditures.

• Why it looks like a bubble: The cash burn required to participate in the AI race is astonishing. AMD nearly tripled analyst models by spending $808 million in capital expenditures last quarter. SpaceX recorded a jaw-dropping $18.37 billion quarterly capex bill to support orbital data infrastructure. GOOG ($195B–$205B annual forecast) and META ($130B–$145B annual forecast) are pushing spending to levels that create near-term return-on-investment (ROI) anxiety.

• Why the fundamentals differ from past bubbles: Unlike the 2000 dot-com bubble, which was built on profitless concepts and eyeball metrics, the 2026 AI expansion is entirely funded by cash-rich, highly profitable monopolies. Furthermore, real enterprise revenue is materializing. PLTR upgraded its full-year revenue projection past $8.15 billion entirely because of domestic corporate AI adoption, and MSFT’s Azure cloud run-rate topped $100 billion.

• The market is experiencing is an infrastructure overbuild digestion phase. Stock prices are experiencing corrections because valuations ran too far ahead of near-term cash flows, but the underlying medium-to-long-term enterprise fundamentals, digital migration, and macroeconomic consumer pillars remain definitively intact.

Summary Conclusion: What the market is experiencing is an infrastructure overbuild digestion phase. Stock prices are experiencing corrections because valuations ran too far ahead of near-term cash flows (as technical analysis warned for AMD, MU, weeks ago), but the underlying medium-to-long-term enterprise fundamentals, digital migration, and macroeconomic consumer pillars remain strong.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

Over the past few days, I have highlighted the potential for an SPCX bounce. SPCX made its first appearance in the Weekly Compass last week, and my bullish outlook stems from an objective study of its technicals, alongside the Market Intelligence study I published on June 10th analyzing the historical price behavior of previous IPOs including TSLA, PLTR, BABA, META, and others. SPCX is following the script.

For new paid subscribers, please read the study here, today the chart analysis for SPCX is consistent with it:

SPX: What is the Next Strong Resistance?

I anticipated 7,638 as a major resistance zone before the index topped at 7,620. The price declined from there and printed choppy price action for over two months, we have now navigated the first turbulent zone outlined in this April analysis:

The chart below presents the next major resistance to watch and the technical conditions suggesting specific direction for the index:

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The defining economic event occurred on Friday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, drastically missing expectations of an 83,000 gain. Revisions also shaved another 103,000 jobs off prior months. While this signaled a clear cooling in the labor market under the weight of regional energy strains, equity investors cheered the data. The weak payroll expansion sharply lowered the probability of an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hike, causing the 10-year Treasury note yield to slide to 4.63%.

High-Probability Setup Performance

On the corporate side, several bullish events unfolded throughout the week:

• PLTR: Delivered as one of our high-probability bullish setups 🎯, gaining 39% following a strong earnings report detailed in my Monday’s daily note.

• SPCX: Advanced 22% during the week. Subscribers were alerted to a breakout earlier 🎯, reinforced in yesterday’s note highlighting its bullish conviction candle. By providing the key bullish-above-level at 111.9 alongside support-and-resistance combinations to navigate the bounce, the stock recovered its central monthly level, marking a structural change.

• TSLA: Hit our extended target of 328 for a 5.4% gain 🎯.

• META: Bounced as expected, completing a 6.3% move 🎯.

• GOOG: Reached its extended target of 381 for a 6.9% gain 🎯 on Tuesday before reversing precisely from that modeled zone.

• GLD: Remained bullish as anticipated, surpassing its extended target of 388 🎯 to notch a 7.3% weekly gain.

• MSFT: Hit our bullish target of 491, securing a 5.8% move 🎯.

• AAPL: Its weak setup did not trigger the expected decline. While the central weekly level (CWL) was not recovered, the setup remains valid as of today.

6 out of 7 setups were accurate, with the average gain at 11%

The Power of Disciplined Technical Analysis

All of the bullish setups proved correct, delivering major gains backed by disciplined, neutral technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels. Every single price level mentioned above was calculated last Friday in advance for this week, proving once again that institutional algorithms react directly to these zones, see the exact reversal point on GOOG or the weekly close on TSLA.

These levels are modeled every Friday to provide the exact data needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You never have to wait for the opening bell to build your trading plan. You gain precise distances to essential levels and clear setups indicating whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, empowering you to make informed, calm decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Unlock the updated levels for next week modeled for this core watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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As a paid subscriber, you receive three core publications every week:

• Friday: Weekly and monthly levels updated.

• Saturday: Detailed charts and elaborated high-probability setups.

• Wednesday: Market intelligence, last Wednesday I posted educational content about combining indicators with S/R Levels.

In addition, you get DAILY UPDATES providing daily SPX levels for the day ahead and key events to watch. For example, last Monday I alerted subscribers to the bearish reversal on AMZN, last Wednesday I reinforced the bullish setup forming for GLD and AVGO, and last night I highlighted the bullish setup for SPCX.

Next week, I will provide daily updates on SPX as usual, plus SPCX and all the magnificent seven. Subscribe! One setup pays for the whole subscription.

Let’s begin.

WEEKLY LEVELS

Most securities have gained bullish momentum, as reflected by the highlighted column in the right-hand table (green = bullish conditions, red = bearish conditions). Next week, I will track the Magnificent Seven on a daily basis, given that two of them have lost key levels while another two are likely to consolidate.

SPCX and PLTR have a solid safety cushion, as demonstrated by our analysis showing the percentage distance to their central weekly levels (CWL):

Read more

The SPX traded in a narrow range, respecting the daily levels shared yesterday. The 7,745 central daily level acted as anticipated resistance signaling weakness since yesterday. From there, the index moved sideways down to the first daily support at 7,697.

Energy prices surged today since markets faced a renewed wave of caution as geopolitical negotiations hit temporary stops (as anticipated during the weekend, Geopolitics is the constant question mark in the market today). On the other hand, economic data showed this morning a slight rise in weekly U.S. unemployment claims, tomorrow the July employment report will be released early in the morning.

Opening reversals remained a theme today. MU recovered from an initial -4% premarket drop to close down -1.3%, offering another good example of a squeeze from oversold levels at the opening. This pattern aligns with the examples posted in yesterday’s educational piece on combining Bollinger Bands with S/R timeframes for paid subscribers.

Similar bounces occurred in SMH and AMD. However, these semiconductor names still have work to do to reclaim key moving averages on the daily and weekly charts, not to mention key monthly levels for MU and AMD.

From the stocks we’re monitoring closely this week:

• UBER: Acted constructively, reclaiming its central weekly level (CWL) at 69 and closing right at the central monthly level, with a favorable weekly setup as of now.

• SHOP: Danced around its central daily level of 146 while a major gap below leaves room for consolidation within a broader bullish context.

• NVDA: Showed indecision, facing rejection at the daily resistance of 222 and retracing to the 219 central daily level (both anticipated last night). It is set to open under pressure tomorrow below the updated bullish above / bearish below central daily level (updated below).

• MU: Attempted to recover its central daily level of 901 after bouncing off 826, both precalculated levels shared yesterday. The price remains under pressure below the central monthly level and must hold above 873.9 tomorrow to maintain a constructive outlook.

Today’s Agenda:

1. Let’s examine the most important chart of the moment to evaluate how the week is looking.

2. Daily plan and levels for the SPX

3. The daily levels below also cover critical semiconductor names (MU, NVDA, AVGO, TSM, and SMH) essential for the broader market rally, alongside megacaps that reported earnings this week: AMD, LLY, MU, SHOP, MELI, UBER, APP, and SPCX, which is looking constructive relative to its levels considering today’s +6% bounce.

Let’s begin.

The Most Important Chart of the Week:

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Over the last few days, we have seen very rapid moves in extended hours (after or before the market opens) following earnings reports on both the bullish and bearish sides, not to mention pre-market shifts driven by developments in the conflict in Iran. Regardless of whether the situation is bullish or bearish, sharp reversals are occurring. Today, this publication focuses on educational content about how to combine support and resistance levels with other technical indicators.

The key question when using levels is: How to anticipate whether a level will act as a reversal zone?

Last Friday, the support and resistance levels for this week included educational content on setting a hierarchy of monthly, weekly, and daily levels, along with preliminary considerations for combining them. Today, I have updated charts illustrating reversals that occurred right at the market open, reversing extreme moves.

The S/R Levels mentioned above for this week are here:

When NFLX posted its earnings, I anticipated that chasing that bearish move with shorts was extremely risky and that a (bullish) reversal could happen. I indicated my preferred timeframe to anticipate this kind of move following extreme premarket overextensions, and the reversal played out as expected with the stock jumping at the open from 65 to 69 for a +6% move 🎯. The same thing happened with GOOG and META, both bouncing following the post-earnings reports selloffs. Technical analysis anticipated that chasing those moves after earnings were highly risky as documented. Today, we are going to study those patterns, alongside reversals to the downside, which is what we have seen with AMZN with a cumulated -5% move since my bearish warning on Monday 🎯.

Today’s edition focuses on educational content on reversal zones because support and resistance levels are areas where institutional algorithms react. We saw this in action this week, for example, with the S&P 500 facing rejection at 7,761 (a pre-modeled weekly level) and the QQQ facing rejection at 726.2 (a monthly level updated last Friday). Similarly, once GOOG reached its bullish target of 381 in confluence with the monthly target of 382, that zone printed a reversal area that triggered the bearish engulfing candle we saw today. It is interesting to observe with these three tickers how accurately support and resistance levels mark the zones where institutional algorithms react. Now let’s study when the levels are likely to become reversal zones, and when they can flip from resistance to support or vice-versa.

Remember that when you become a paid subscriber, you unlock my two ebooks on technical analysis, they can be found in my educational library:

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Today’s Agenda:

• Combining S/R levels with Bollinger Bands: Case studies on NFLX, META, and TSLA.

• Daily SPX Plan and Levels for Thursday, August 6th. Technical chart.

• Technical Analysis for QQQ, GLD, SMH, AVGO, and NVDA, alongside commentary on GOOG, AAPL, and other megacaps.

• Daily Levels for Tomorrow: SPX, SMH, NVDA, PLTR, SPCX, AVGO, LLY, AMD, MU, TSM, SHOP, MELI, UBER, and APP.

Let’s begin,

Anticipating Reversals: How to Avoid Getting Squeezed

The recent cases for NFLX, META, and TSLA provide good vivid examples:

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The SPX and the NDX continued their bullish move. The NDX validated the bullish setup studied in the Weekly Compass posted on Saturday, indicating that the weekly setup for the index could mark the beginning of a new bull leg and a strong start to the week.

The weekly setup provides directional guidance, and once that move gains traction, we navigate it using support and resistance levels. Both the SPX and NDX opened the week above their central weekly levels, validating the bullish thesis. For the SPX, clearing 7,563 on Monday served as the first bullish checkpoint modeled since Friday. For the NDX, clearing 28,862 (along with 754 for SPY and 702 for QQQ) printed clear conviction for both indices.

I highlighted a couple of elements yesterday in this daily note after the market closed for paid subscribers:

• AMZN was likely to retrace given its overextension, and the stock fell 2.3% today.

• SMH needed to hold the line by staying above its central weekly level of 537.

Today, the setup printed continuation. We navigate the move using weekly levels to track momentum and daily levels to identify early signals of reversals. The SPX needed to stay above 7,571.8 as its central daily level. With that condition met, the next bullish layers where institutional algorithms were likely to react were 7,638 (which was essentially conquered at the open), 7,677 (easily passed with conviction at 10:45 AM), and 7,744, where the market closed the session to print new all-time highs.

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock three core publications every week: weekly support and resistance levels on Fridays, technical charts and high-probability setups on Saturdays, and market intelligence on Wednesdays. You will also get daily updates to help you navigate the market with daily levels for the SPX and the week's key stocks or ETFs.

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Two major drivers fueled today’s bullish setup:

First, PLTR. The stock was flagged as bullish last week in the Weekly Compass after recovering its central weekly level of 124, and the rest is history. We simply manage the combination of directional indication and set a stop using 124 as a reference (remember, stops are set below the level for longs and above the level for shorts). The fundamental picture was summarized in yesterday’s note, and the 29% move today was impressive, fueling the broader market and a software industry that has been showing strong bullish intent (with MSFT being another stock tracked in our regular watchlist that was analyzed with bullish probabilities ahead of earnings).

Second, geopolitics. The rally was further fueled after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that active negotiations could yield a deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz within 24 to 48 hours. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures both dropped over 5%, easing inflation and cost anxieties.

Today’s content:

• Daily plan with levels for the SPX tomorrow, as shared in this daily note.

• The fundamental picture for AMD and SPCX. Both moved higher during regular market hours but are currently giving up their daily gains following their after-hours earnings releases. We cover the reasons why.

• Daily levels combined with longer-term support and resistance layers for companies posting earnings this week, allowing you to navigate their price action: PLTR, SPCX, AMD, LLY, SHOP, MELI, UBER, and APP.

• Daily levels for semiconductors, which remain vital for the continuation of the rally. Levels for SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, and TSM are included.

• A key element to watch tomorrow to help manage risk. This was also highlighted to the paid community last night and is beginning to brew a significant move today.

Let’s begin.

SPX - Daily Plan:

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The U.S. stock market kicked off August with a powerful broad-market surge, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new closing high.

Technology moved constructively following the bullish setup we studied on Saturday in the Weekly Compass. The Magnificent Seven continued higher today, exactly as anticipated in the Weekly Compass, where I highlighted that GOOG, TSLA, and MSFT were set to move in a bullish direction, targeting 368 (+3.4%) 🎯, 319 (+2.7%) 🎯, and 491 (+5.8%) 🎯, respectively. All of them hit those specific targets with precision.

META, as I also anticipated, reversed from bearish conditions by reclaiming 564.2. The +6% move today matches the anticipated gap fill attempt I mentioned previously🎯, using GOOG as a reference point, a stock that filled already the gap printed after earnings results (as anticipated as well with technical considerations).

PLTR, on the other hand, was also expected to break out constructively by recovering 124.5 today as Central Weekly Level, the recovery happened during market hours 🎯. While technicals do not predict earnings results, extreme conditions help price action move in the expected direction when a catalyst arrives; true to form, the stock rallied over 14% in extended hours after posting earnings.

I publish three core analyses every week, beginning on Fridays with the weekly and monthly support and resistance levels for the week and month ahead. On Saturdays, the Weekly Compass presents the technical deep dive for the SPX, NDX, Dow Jones, Semiconductors, IWM, Crypto, all the Magnificent Seven (NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, etc.), metals, and other megacaps. That publication presents high-probability setups for the week in a single blueprint complete with price targets and risk-management levels, followed by daily notes providing actionable levels for the SPX. Get access here:

Subscribe to the paid plan and unlock all the analysis and this unique daily market follow up with daily levels.

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Because the move was rapid, and we have learned to exercise caution when aggressive selloffs or rallies occur on a Monday, these daily notes help navigate the price action until our third core publication arrives on Wednesday with more market intelligence.

For this week, alongside our daily SPX execution levels, I’m closely monitoring the daily levels for key companies posting earnings from our expanded watchlist: PLTR, AMD, LLY, APP, UBER, SHOP, SPCX, and MELI. We are also tracking semiconductor leaders MU, TSM, NVDA, and AVGO, as they are crucial for the sustainability of the current market rally, they presented a concerning premarket selloff earlier today.

Let’s begin.

Daily SPX Levels and Fundamental PLTR Drivers:

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The final week of July 2026 was a dramatic, high-stakes rollercoaster on Wall Street as expected. After navigating sharp sector swings, a highly divided Federal Reserve meeting, and heavy macroeconomic data, a late-week short squeeze in technology enabled the broad market to claw back into positive territory for the week.

Many storms were anticipated last week in this publication, with each day bringing its own unique set of volatility drivers:

1. The Federal Reserve: A Hawkish Hold

The Federal Reserve took center stage on Wednesday, voting 9–3 to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, the decision was far more hawkish than anticipated. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, voting instead for an immediate 25-basis-point interest rate hike due to sticky inflation that has remained above target for five years. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized a period of watchful thinking, driving up pressure for a potential rate hike in September.

2. Major Corporate Earnings: The AI Capex Battle

Earnings season entered its most critical phase, with investors heavily scrutinizing whether massive corporate infrastructure spending on artificial intelligence would damage near-term profitability.

• MSFT: Acted as the tech sector’s savior. Shares soared 15.5% on Thursday, recording the largest single-day market-cap gain in U.S. history, after delivering robust Azure cloud results that proved its massive AI capital investments are successfully materializing into growth. The bounce was consistent with technical conditions we studied last week ✅.

• META: Fell 8% on Thursday after raising its full-year capital expenditure forecast to a massive $130 billion to $145 billion range, missing earnings expectations due to spiking infrastructure expenses. The gap fill attempt I mentioned is in progress, the price bounced +3% on Friday following the bounce from the lows on Thursday (Considered based on the bearish overextension studied on Wednesday) ✅.

• AMZN & AAPL: Displayed a mixed post-market reaction on Thursday. Amazon popped 15% on strong cloud segments, while Apple cooled -7% following its ascent to a historic $5 trillion market valuation earlier in the week. Both moves were consistent with technical conditions studied here that suggested a bullish reversal for AMZN ✅, and a bearish one for AAPL ✅.

3. The Semiconductor Squeeze: Hedge Fund Liquidation

A massive catalyst for the technology market’s late-week U-turn was the orderly liquidation of Situational Awareness, a prominent $20 billion AI-focused hedge fund. Hit by severe margin calls during July’s tech downturn, the fund was forced into a fire sale, offloading its entire leveraged public stock portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel.

Because Situational Awareness had a massive, crowded exposure to technology longs, the completion of this block transaction cleanly removed a massive selling overhang from the sector. Short sellers caught in the vacuum rushed to cover, fueling a violent semiconductor short squeeze. AMD and MU both surged over 10% on Thursday, while SNDK rocketed over 25%. It’s worth noting that the rally did not continue on Friday, leaving open the considerations for a tactical bounce instead of a sustainable one. We will monitor semiconductor stocks next week in my daily notes including their levels.

4. Key Economic Indicators

A flurry of indicators released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis established a stabilizing floor for equity markets:

• Slowing GDP: Advance estimates revealed U.S. Q2 Gross Domestic Product slowed down to a 1.5% annualized growth rate, down from 2.1% in Q1 and coming in below economists’ expectations.

• Cooling PCE Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy), cooled to a mild 0.1% monthly increase in June, dragging the year-over-year baseline down to 3.3%.

• Resilient Labor Data: Initial weekly jobless claims edged higher by 9,000 to 197,000.

5. The Iranian Influence on the Weekly Market

Iran played a central role in driving the market’s volatility, acting as a major swing factor for global energy prices and inflation expectations throughout the week.

• The Early-Week Dip (Diplomatic Hopes): Early in the week, crude oil prices cratered because the U.S. and Iran temporarily paused a 13-day wave of active military strikes to give backroom diplomacy space.

• The Mid-Week Spike (Renewed Conflict): This diplomatic optimism shattered on Wednesday. Tensions flared after Iranian-backed militias launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East, prompting immediate joint retaliatory airstrikes by U.S. and Saudi forces against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets. Concurrently, Iran-aligned Houthi militants intensified a maritime embargo in the Red Sea, targeting Saudi tankers. This sudden re-escalation caused Brent crude to jump back, compounding the intense broad-market equity sell-off on Wednesday due to resurgent inflation fears and a hawkish FED as we studied that day.

• Late-Week Stabilization: Energy and stock markets finally settled late Thursday and Friday after Saudi Arabia proposed a 40-country multinational naval coalition to protect critical Red Sea passages.

Ultimately, the softer GDP and PCE readings checked surging bond yields, providing macroeconomic reassurance that the Fed might pause on rate hikes, which allowed the massive short squeeze and earnings beats to power the indexes higher by Friday.

Now that most of the storms have passed (the situation in Iran is a constant roller coaster), let’s assess the technical conditions for next week.

Last week the high probability setups worked very well, the Support and Resistance Levels proved once again how powerful they are to set targets when momentum and reversals are correctly assessed with objective technical analysis.

MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, WMT, COST, and JPM all reached or exceeded their bullish targets 🎯, with AAPL's higher push and subsequent retrace well considered on Wednesday. Meanwhile, AMD and SMH hit my bearish targets 🎯, META's bullish setup remained untriggered, and XOM continues to look constructive as it navigates its target. That equates to an 9 out of 11 win rate on reaching target prices, or 10 out of 11 when factoring in overall directional accuracy.

Technical analysis is the ultimate reflection of human psychology. Unlock the charts and setups below for next week. Semiconductors still have work to do, and a few Magnificent Seven stocks could begin a healthy consolidation phase, just as we typically see following such aggressive moves.

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Unlock this objective approach by upgrading to the paid plan. Subscribers get access to 3 core publications per week covering indices, megacaps, and major ETFs (this is one of them) plus daily updates with SPX levels. Everything is available at smartreversals.com. Zero gut feeling. Everything is specific.

Today’s Agenda

• Market Context: Charts+levels for SPX, Indices, ETFs, VIX, Breadth, and Crypto.

• Deep Dive: Individual analysis with charts and targets for Mag Seven and setups.

• Momentum Map: Analyzing the stage of every security in a single view.

• Setups Blueprint: Entry levels for short and long setups with price targets and invalidation levels for all the securities in the watchlist prioritizing stronger setups.

Let’s begin.

SPX: How Strong is the Rally?

When analyzing sector performance during the week, only Consumer Discretionary closed with bullish conviction, driven by AMZN's rally while TSLA closed flat attempting to find a bottom. Financials, Communications, and Staples gained over 1% each, while all other sectors declined. Technology continued printing internal divergences; despite the rallies in MSFT and the rebound in semiconductors, the group ultimately closed flat.

How does it happen? The gains in names like AVGO were offset by losses in NVDA, while net weekly declines in MU, AMD, AMAT, INTC, and of course, AAPL, offset the rally in MSFT. That divergence continues to demand attention for the coming week. For that reason, the daily levels for MU, AMD, AMAT, SNDK, NVDA, AVGO, and SMH will be tracked in my daily notes, along with PLTR and SPCX (SpaceX not yet in the SPX, but large enough to move the market).

When analyzing the chart for the SPX, these are the conditions and levels that must hold in order to recover bullish momentum, see the comparison with previous declines and corrections:

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In the noise of daily market fluctuations, traders often chase price action blindly, reacting to headlines long after institutional algorithms have already made their moves. To navigate this complexity, structured quantitative analysis provides a distinct edge. By utilizing a multi-timeframe framework of monthly, weekly, and daily levels, you can map out the market’s roadmap well before the opening bell.

These levels are not arbitrary lines; they anticipate where institutional algorithms are likely to react. These levels are waypoints, to successfully trade them, you must assess real-time price action alongside overbought and oversold conditions.

Here is how to structure, sequence, and execute this multi-timeframe approach for maximum clarity.

Understanding the Hierarchy of Timeframes

When analyzing market structure, each timeframe serves a specific tactical purpose:

• Monthly Levels (The Macro Momentum): Monthly levels provide the clearest, widest visibility of the broader market structure. Being above or below the central monthly level dictates the prevailing long-term momentum and defines whether the broader regime is bullish or bearish. These levels are key for (long term) investors who don’t move their money every week or day.

• Weekly Levels (The Swing Blueprint): Weekly levels are ideal for managing multi-day swings and positioning through intermediate trends. They act as the primary battlegrounds where institutional participants defend or abandon significant positions.

• Daily Levels (The Execution Grid): Daily levels work exceptionally well for short-term swings and scalps. More importantly, daily levels serve as early warning signals when an asset is attempting to reverse. Because the central daily level is typically recovered or lost before the weekly level, it acts as the vanguard of a shift in momentum.

For investors, weekly and daily levels dramatically improve entry precision. I remember when I posted on social channels on June 25th that Micron (MU) was poised to fill its gap following an after-hours rally and likely initiate a sharp reversal from extreme overbought conditions. Some comments brushed it off, arguing that a pullback was fine for long-term holders. That pullback ultimately plunged the stock from 1,254 down to 737 by July 29th, marking a staggering 41% drawdown. It makes you wonder how easy it is to stomach a capital loss of that magnitude while staying optimistic about clawing that money back, relying solely on hopes of further bullish continuation to make the original decision make sense.

Is There an Order of Considerations?

Yes. While monthly levels set the overarching momentum, the sequence of interaction across timeframes dictates how a reversal unfolds.

Consider a typical bottoming process during a sell-off. When an asset is deeply oversold, the recovery rarely happens all at once. First, the price must reclaim the central daily level, signaling early intraday exhaustion from sellers.

We saw that transparently on March 31st, I anticipated a bounce coming in the Weekly Compass posted on March 28, that week I began to post daily executive notes with daily levels for the SPX, when the central daily level (CDL) was recovered, a first bullish signal was printed, then the weekly was recovered, and we managed momentum updating levels to manage momentum and risk.

Next, if buying pressure persists, it pushes the price up to challenge the central weekly level. Only when institutional accumulation forces the price through the weekly threshold does the asset target the central monthly level.

As we saw recently during the market’s mid-week recovery, an asset can reclaim its daily level, push through the weekly level, and put a reversal into play before the monthly level is even reached (the current case for Semiconductors SMH and AMD). Conversely, if a rally stalls out right at a declining weekly level without ever threatening the monthly structure, it confirms that the broader macro trend remains dominant and the bounce is merely a corrective counter-trend move.

These levels are modeled every Friday for you, providing the information needed to assess risk and reward before the market opens on Monday. You don’t have to wait for the opening bell to decide your plan and which securities to trade; you have here the distances to essential levels and the setups suggesting whether they will act as support or resistance well in advance, so you make informed and serene decisions ahead of Monday morning.

Our Core Watchlist:

• Indices & Futures: SPX, NDX, DJI, IWM, ES=F, NQ=F

• ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SMH, TLT, GLD, SLV, DIA, VXX

• Major Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, BRK.B, LLY, WMT, AVGO, COST, JPM, XOM, PLTR, NFLX, V, AMD

• Crypto & Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETHA, IBIT

• Leveraged ETFs: TQQQ, SQQQ, UDOW, SDOW, UPRO, SPXS, URTY, SRTY

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These levels work very well as targets, we saw this week the setups I posted last weekend reaching their targets: NFLX 🎯, AAPL 🎯, SMH 🎯 (bearish), AMD 🎯 (bearish) , WMT 🎯, COST 🎯, AMZN 🎯, JPM 🎯, and MSFT 🎯. Trading is about probabilities and risk management, 9 high probability setups reached their targets, the levels kept us away from META that was expected to bounce, and in the case of XOM the setup is still in play on its way to the target. Setting targets is key to secure profits by closing a trade or updating the referral levels to set stop losses while the price has directional conviction.

Let’s continue with this educational content and the updated levels for AUGUST and NEXT WEEK.

Reading the Price Action at the Level

A level is only as good as the price action delivering the asset to its doorstep. To determine whether a level will hold, flip, or break, we evaluate in this publication price action and momentum indicators:

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Last night in the mid-week update, I mentioned how likely a bounce was for today given oversold conditions in the SPX, QQQ, and SMH. I also noted how oversold AMZN was to guard against further declines, clarifying that technicals do not anticipate earnings reactions. In a neutral way, I highlighted that AAPL was overbought and outlined the technical reasons why a decline was likely. Both of those expectations played out today 🎯.

Following its earnings release, META began the decline with a gap-fill attempt as expected, MSFT continues to look constructive, and GLD showed technical signs of recovery, closing in the green today and building on the bullish thesis. On a separate note, TSLA was due for a strong bounce, which also materialized today.

All of those moves were anticipated through objective and transparent technical analysis presented to subscribers. Now let us talk about levels, because the bounce was strong and recovered essential lines modeled ahead of the session.

The central daily level for the SPX was 7,360, acting as support during the session. The price moved toward the next daily level of 7,406, consolidating until 12:45 before continuing its course to the central weekly and monthly levels, which served as a precise resistance zone. Specifically, the central monthly level at 7,452 acted as the exact resistance zone for the high of the day, while the central weekly level of 7,437 marked the precise close of the session. Because those levels were modeled before July and the week began, they serve as vital guides for anticipating where institutional algorithms are likely to react.

MSFT rallying 15% as the third-largest company in the world fueled tech, combined with cooler PCE inflation data and slowing GDP growth, helped calm the intense bond market sell-off from the day before. It remains impressive how accurately the levels acted as destinations for the SPX, and how MSFT reached our annual level of 459 included in my weekly charts.

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With that said, let us study the SPX levels for tomorrow. AMZN, the fourth-largest company, is moving strongly after hours (+8%), while AAPL, the second-largest company, continues to validate its bearish reversal thesis with a -7% move.

As we close out the final day of July, the market must hold the following weekly chart structure to set up a consolidation phase rather than a continued sell-off:

The Most important Chart of the Week:

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U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, suffering a steep broad-market sell-off catalyzed by a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve division, mounting inflation fears, and geopolitical escalation. The Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to maintain benchmark interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking an ongoing pause . However, the decision rattled investors as three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point rate hike due to sticky inflation. This divided stance, coupled with Warsh’s commentary highlighting persistent price pressures, triggered a strong sell-off as the price of the SPX reversed from 7,452, our key central monthly level that has defined momentum and volatility over recent days.

Compounding these domestic concerns, geopolitical tensions spiked following an unexpected attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East, moving oil CL=F +7%, and intensifying worries over rising energy-driven inflation. Let’s see if the high probability setup posted for XOM during the weekend reaches its bullish target.

On a shorter-term basis, the market lost the 7,421 central daily level at the open and slid to 7,352, our second bearish layer, by noon. Prices found a temporary bounce and gained traction when the widely anticipated interest rate pause was announced, but reversed sharply once the Fed Chair began his commentary. During rate decisions, the Fed Chair’s remarks are just as critical as the policy choice itself. As longer-term bond yields surged, the recovery vanished, pushing the SPX down to test the 7,321 daily bearish level shared yesterday.

Tech presented oversold conditions that opened up the probabilities for a bounce, for that reason I shared last night daily levels for QQQ and SMH today, but 674 and 527 respectively were not conquered, and both ETFs closed at the lowest daily levels shared last night: 662 for QQQ, and 502 for SMH. See how the three tickers closed at their lowest daily level in synchrony, another reference of why institutional algorithms react to these modeled levels ahead of each session.

With the potential bounce unconfirmed by the recovery of key levels for the SPX and QQQ, we continue studying the likely sell-off destination outlined over the weekend. Let’s begin our mid-week market update by examining the SPX, QQQ, SMH, and GLD, alongside current setups for META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, AMD, and GOOG now that its post-earnings gap has been filled as expected.

I highlighted four elements over the weekend that were likely to pressure the stock market. So far, geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s hawkish tone are playing out. On the tech earnings front, MSFT’s preliminary move of +8% is offsetting META’s bearish reaction of -7%.

Will Gold reappear as a safe-haven asset? I will be doing a deep dive into gold, covering both its technical setup and the macro aspects you need to consider.

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Let’s begin.

SPX - The bearish target outlined during the weekend continues in play:

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Investors continued pulling capital away from AI-driven semiconductor darlings and rotated into consumer, healthcare, and industrial sectors. The semiconductor rout worsened as the Semiconductor ETF SMH tumbled for a fourth straight day, with individual memory leaders Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron Technology (MU) each plunging over 8%.

Meanwhile, robust Q2 results fueled a massive surge in the Dow. Paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) jumped over 8%, Coca-Cola (KO) rose 5% after raising its full-year guidance, and Boeing (BA) added more than 4% on positive free cash flow data. You could truly call this an earnings extravaganza in value corporations.

High Probability Setups Update

It is only Tuesday, and the targets shared over the weekend in the Weekly Compass continue working exceptionally well. Apple (AAPL) defied the broader hardware slump by climbing to become the first company in history to hit a $5 trillion market capitalization, hitting my first bullish target of 338 and gaining 2.1% this week 🎯.

Yesterday, I highlighted AMD and SMH as high-probability bearish setups from the Weekly Compass that successfully reached their targets. Today, AAPL, WMT, COST, and NFLX have joined them by hitting their bullish targets. This demonstrates how my setups remain objective and neutral (not only bearish or bullish), with every chart analyzed strictly on its own merits:

• AMD: Exceeded its extended bearish target of 469, falling -12.9% this week 🎯.

• SMH: Exceeded its extended bearish target of 534, falling -5.6% this week 🎯.

• WMT: Exceeded its bullish target of 113, up +3.8% this week 🎯.

• NFLX: Reached its bullish target of 73.1, up +4.4% this week 🎯.

• AAPL: Hit 338, bullish +2.1% this week 🎯.

• COST: Exceeded its bullish target of 962, up +3.3% this week 🎯..

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Consistency

This is the main attribute every investor and trader must possess, which is why I publish special studies in the market intelligence section on SmartReversals.com and revisit them constantly. Today, I am recalling a key point from the Weekly Compass: the -1.3% move in the NDX at the beginning of the week.

After the analysis, get access to the daily levels not only for the SPX, but also for META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, SPCX, XOM, V, QCOM, and KO.

Oversold Conditions Reached: What to Expect

The chart below illustrates what I outlined over the weekend regarding the rapid sell-off scenario for tech.

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